THE DANGERS THAT COULD LIE AHEAD

THE THREAT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPOHNS

Another grave threat to mankind is the possibility of biological attack.  Such a dread assault would entail the release of germs or other biological substances that would infect, sicken, and kill numbers of people.  A suicidal "attacker" could, for example, infect himself with smallpox, or ebola, and move about freely before perishing from it, causing one or more epidemics to break out, and eventually claim millions of lives--especially if it were carried out, or came to spread, over several continents. 

These viruses are relatively easy for one or more persons with some specialized knowledge to obtain or assemble, and put to deadly use.  And there happen to be thousands of people who possess such skills worldwide.  It is very possible--in fact, quite easy--for one or more of these persons, having use of a laboratory, and the requisite zeal and/or monetary inducement to do so, to carry out such a lethal project.

There are, furthermore, possibilities for the production of "engineered viruses," for which there could be no immunity or antidote.  These could cause even greater catastrophic results than the AIDS epidemic is currently producing in Africa.  Such observations become parti8cularly frightening when we realize that our world is becoming ever more interconnected and integrated, as commerce, travel, and personnel relocations increase and spread farther every day.  Moreover, our scientific capabilities are increasing daily as well, making it all the more possible and simple to carry out such dire projects.  A further consideration, particularly from a "terrorist's" point of view, lies in the fact that the present existence of instant worldwide communication would cause worldwide dread and panic upon the successful execution of even a miniscule endeavor of this nature.  An illustration of this is the widespread fear that spread throughout the United States, as well as other parts of the world, upon the death of five persons caused by the mailing of anthrax spores in September, 2001.

Martin Rees, author of Our Final Hour, states that he has recently made a wager of a thousand dollars with a colleague that an instance of "bioterror or bioerror" would cause at least a million deaths by the year 2020.  But even more frightening is his query, contained on an earlier page of his book, that if such causes could take a million lives before 2020, what horror could be in store for our descendants in the yrears or decades that follow that?



CHEMICAL WARFARE

A related form of potential danger to groups of people, and to humanity in general, is the threat of chemical weapons.  Chemical attack entails the release of toxic materials in a solid, liquid, or gaseous form, which can incapacitate, sicken, or kill people, and/or wreak harm upon the environment. 

Historically, the use of toxic materials has been viewed with mixed emotions and a degree of disdain in the West.  As early as the days of Roman conquest, we are told that Germanic tribes resorted to poisoning the wells of their enemies as a means of defense.  During the nineteenth century, when a British chemist named Playfair proposed the use of cyanide in warfare, his idea was criticized as constituting "as bad a mode of warfare as poisoning the wells of the enemy."  Playfair's response consisted of an interesting declaration that "war is destruction, and the more destructive it can be made with the least suffering, the sooner will be ended that barbarous method of protecting national rights."

During modern times, the most commonly employed chemical weapons have been poison gasses.  They are classified and named according to the means by which they befall their victims, or the effect they render upon persons thus exposed to them.  Thus, various gasses have been referred to as "nerve agents," "blood agents," "pulmonary agents," "blister agents," and "incapacitating agents."

Particularly horrible is a substance known as "mustard gas.," which is said to have the ability to penetrate leather and fabric, and to thus inflict painful burns on the skin.  This and other such nightmares are disseminated by means of munitions, such as bombs or projectiles; or via spray tanks, as might be borne by low-flying aircraft.

By the turn of the twentieth century, the use of poison gas had become more or less universally abhorred within the Western nations.  In 1899, the Hague Conference approved a proposal forbidding its use.  Notably, this prohibition was carried almost unanimously--i.e., but for a single vote--cast by the United States!

Chemical warfare arrived at a new and higher plateau during World War I.  At least 85,000 deaths, as well as over a million non-fatal casualties, can be attributed to the use of newly discovered substances, including chlorine and phosgene gas, during these hostilities.

After World War I ended, a number of European powers resumed efforts to establish and retain colonies in various parts of the world.  When native populations objected or rebelled, chemical agents were frequently resorted to as a means of suppressing them.  It appeared that little shame was felt on the part of the imperialists about the employment of such methods.  Consider, for instance, Winston Churchill's remarks uttered in 1920, when, as Britain's Colonial Secretary, he authorized such use upon resistors in Mesopotamia:  "I do not understand this squeamishness about the use of gas.  I am strongly in favor of using poison gas against uncivilized tribes."

In 1925, sixteen of the world's major powers signed an agreement known as the Geneva Protocol.  By this compact, the signatory nations pledged never again to employ gas as a weapon.  Curiously, the U.S. Senate didn't get around to ratifying it until 1975.  By 2004, a total of 132 countries had signed on.  But, in the interim, the use of gas and other chemical agents continued in many  parts of the world.  For example, in the 1940s, Japan used gas against Chinese troops.  Italy used it against the Ethiopian army.  And Nazi Germany found much use for cyanide as a means of murdering vast numbers of victims in its concentration camps. 

In fact, during these years, Germany may be credited with the development of additional, deadlier, nerve gas agents, including things known as "tabun," "sarin," and "soman."  We are told that the only reason why the Nazis didnt make more widespread use of these new products was their mistaken belief that the Allies had made similar discoveries and would likewise use them in retaliation.

Subsequently, however, it should be noted that tabun was utilized by Iraq during its long war with Iran.  In fact, approximately five percent of all Iranian casualties during this conflict were caused by exposure to this gas.

In 1952, England had developed an awesomely horrible nerve agent known as "VX."  Shortly afterwards, in the fashion of schoolboys, England traded its technology re the production of VX for information that the United States possessed concerning the production of bigger and better thermonuclear weapons.  And, as might be expected, by 1961, the U.S. was itself producing and stockpiling  large quantities of its newly acquired VX waeapon.  Meanwhile, and especially during the Cold War, the United States and Russia continued to expend enormous resources in efforts to develop new and better chemical and biological weapons.  By 1986, President Reagan proposed a plan to the United States' NATO allies which entailed further development and production of such weapons.  This plan was readily accepted by NATO. 

On June 1, 1990, America's President Bush and Russia's Mikhail Gorbachev signed a treaty calling for an end to the production of all chemical weapons, and the destruction of their respective national stockpiles.  But it is noteworthy to observe that after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian research into even more deadly "binary" chemical weapons (wherein the components are mixed together in the field, just prior to use) continued.

The United Nations has classified chemical weapons as "weapons of mass destruction"; and in 1993 outlawed any and all production and stockpiling thereof.  However, notwithstanding this edict, production and stockpiling continues in various parts of the world--including Albania, India, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and the United States (and likely, as well, in China, Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, and Vietnam).

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THREATS WROUGHT BY THE COMPUTER AGE

A strange and futuristic, but nevertheless possible, twenty first century scenario has been termed "nanobiotics."  It conjectures the development of computer-like machines having the ability to assemble copies of themselves. 

This procedure could be resorted to in the production of weapons by one side in a war, to be directed against the enemy.  However, when functions that should be reserved for humans are given to a machine, there is the possibility of error or accident--or the process itself taking control and superseding its human creators.  The aforementioned Professor Rees suggests that such a process run amuck could precipitate an infinite production of said machines, and eventual resultant disaster to the entire physical world.

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