THE DANGERS THAT COULD LIE AHEAD

It has been conjectured that the odds stand at no better than fifty-fifty that the human race will survive to the end of the twenty first century.  (Martin Rees, Our Final Hour)  Should the disappearance of humanity occur, it would be particularly shameful if it happened to be attributable to something that would need to be termed "predatory mutual extinction."  Humanity must therefore take preemptive actions now, in order to make sure that the human race does survive into the twenty second century, and beyond.

This horrible--but nonetheless real--possibilitythat our present society is on the verge of self-destruction has prompted James Lovelock, originator of the "Gaia" biosphere, to urge the compilation of a "start-up manual for civilization," which would be a textbook of techniques for the possible few human survivors who might remain after an extinctive evantuality.  It has even been suggested that these threats to survival on earth ought motivate a search for alternative places of habitation beyond our planet.  It has been said that the establishment of self-sustaining communities away from Earth would enable humanity to be (technically) invulnerable to any such disasters that might occur down here.


THE NUCLEAR THREAT

When we speak of man-made perils to the survival of humanity, the first instrumentality that comes to mind today is atomic weaponry.  A nuclear blast produces a powerful explosion, intense light and heat, a pressure wave that kills and destroys, and radiation to land, water, and air, for miles around in all directions.

It is with trepidation that we realize that a nuclear conflict (i.e., a war between two nuclear powers) offers no hope of victory to either side.  This, in fact, has been conjectured to be its ultimate deterrent--politically and militarily--thus far.  Among the dreaded possibilities is the fear that an out and out nuclear exchange between two warring nations might produce what has been termed a "nuclear winter," wherein the sun might be blocked out around the world, producing mass extinction of any and all living things.  Furthermore, should a few humans survive such a calamity, these poor souls would face widespread contamination, radiation sickness, and eventual cancer, in a world thus rendered basically uninhabitable.  Such mass annihilation would, at best, set civilization back many centuries; and possibly constitute the end of earthly human existence altogether.

At this time, it is uncertain exactly how many countries have, or are close to obtaining, nuclear capability.  But as more nations acquire it, the greater the danger to all of us becomes.  A small desperate nation--or more likely, one or more "hot-headed" leaders thereof, who may not possess the sophistiction required for the exercise of self-control in foreign relations--might feel there is little to lose and much to gain in using its newly acquired giant weapon.  This could come to be the cause of such an extreme catastrophe as aforedescribed--and possibly the extinction of the human race.

Even more dangerous--because it is even more likely--is the acquisition by a terrorist individual or group having sufficient knowledge and materials to build a small nuclear device.  It has been estimated, for example, that the setting off of such a nightmare in lower Manhattan during business hours would produce devastation over several square miles, and kill hundreds of thousands of people.

                                                                   * * * * *

The first atomic bomb used in warfare was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.  It had the explosive power of forty million pounds of TNT.  By the nineteen fifties, hydrogen bombs were being developed having two hundred fifty times that capability--which multiplies out to the destructive power of ten billion pounds of TNT.

The earliest "H bomb," tested by the United States at Eniwetok in 1952, produced a fireball said to be six times hotter than the sun, and caused the mile-long island to become a crater.  Just a few months later, the Soviets exploded a similar device in Siberia.  By 1954, further research and developmebnt on the part of the United States resulted in even more grandiose hydrogen bombs, with ever-greater potential for death and destruction.  That year, a bomb named "Bravo" was tested, which had the explosive power of thirty billion pounds of TNT. 

These goings-on troubled two of the world's most brilliant minds:  Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell--the former of whom having done some of the very research that resulted in the dawning of our atomic age.  They issued a joint statement in the 1950s that came to be referred to as the "Einstein-Russell Manifesto."  The most disturbing aspect of what they had to say was contained in their personal knowledgeable prophesy, implicit in their remark that "the [experts] who know most are the most gloomy." 

Around the same period, a group of nine leading scientists, including the aforesid Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell, issued an urgent worldwide call for a total ban of atomic weapons, by reason of the fact that they constitute a genuine threat to man's continued existence.  As if in a response constituting a rejection of this plea, America's Atomic Energy Commission announced, in 1955, that the U.S. had achieved the ability to build hydrogen bombs of virtually limitless size.

As the 1950s wore on, so too did the nuclear race between the United Stastes and Russia.  It was estimated, in 1957, that a nuclear attack upon New York City would cause well over two million deaths.  In the same year, we accidentally dropped a 42,000 pound hydrogen bomb in New Mexico.  A mishap of this nature upon a populated place could have caused many deaths and widespread destruction.

In 1961, the Soviets had set off a giant fifty megaton H-bomb of their own.  This ongoing foolish race created a new frenzy among the citizens of America to build bomb shelters--the efficacy of which were, and continue to be, questionable at best, and more likely completely valueless.

Then, in 1962, a crisis occurred which has been referred to as not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War, but probably the most perilous moment in human history.  When Russia announced its intention to post missiles in Cuba, and the United States voiced an intention to prevent it at any cost, mankind faced what has been estimated to be a thirty-three to fifty percent chance of witnessing and enduring an atomic war between the world's two super-powers, that might have actually caused the above described extinction of the human race.  Fortunately, America's President Kennedy and Russia's Premier Kruschev seemed to act with appropriate restraint regarding actions that could have led to such a nuclear exchange, and the possiblde end of civilization.

Further appropriate restraint was exhibited by both nations in 1968, when they originated a non-proliferation treaty concerning nuclear weapons.  This treaty constituted an agreement that countries with nuclear capability would refrain from enabling other countries to become such.  This wise declaration of intent was eventually endorsed by over a hundred nations; but, unfortunately, more and more countries have continued to become "nuclear p[owers," notwithstanding.

Subdsequent reasearch and development have resulted in even more terrifying weapons--like the "neutron bomb," which causes little blast damage, but emits widespread doses of lethal radiation.

By 1985, the Soviet Union sought to negotiate a ban on nuclear testing with the United States.  But, at that point, the U.S. refused, citing a need to further perfect its arsenal.  And so, the bomb building went on.  By 1990, the United States and Russia possessed twenty five thousand nuclear weapons, containing the combined firepower of five hundred trillion (half a quadrillion!) tons of explosive material.  In addition, numerous other countries, including China, India, Israel, and Pakistan, have also achieved the dubious distinction of possessing stockpiles of nuclear bombs and missiles.  And now, North Korea and Iran have recently crossed this dreaded threshold (or are close to doing so).  To entertain the idea that all of these countries will peacefully retain all of these weapons forever, and never resort to use of a single one of them, is to truly reside in a fool's paradise.

                                                                      * * * * *

Since the emergence of atomic weapons, development of more and more sophisticated systems for delivering them has taken place as well.  German wartime accomplishments were resorted to after World War II.  Thus, in 1955, a large group of German scientists were at work in a U.S. government facility in Huntsville, Alabama, developing guided missile technology for this country.

By 1957, the Soviets had successfully tested long-range missiles of their own.  This added more urgency to our own quest for an effective ballistic missile system.  And so, a missile race began between the U.S. and Russia, alongside our continuing nuclear bomb competition.  The Soviets forged on, developing bigger and better missiles, as well as continuing to add to their nuclear and missile caches.  These achievements were proudly displayed to the Soviet citizens--whose domestic sacrifices helped finance their development--in grand military parades regularly staged in Red Square.  And by the mid-seventies, it was a known fact that the United States and Russia possessed enough missiles to completely destroy each other several times over.

Another means of delivery of deadly weapons came to the fore during the nineteen sixties:  the missile-equipped submarine.  Atomic submarines, stocked with nuclear-tipped missiles, began to range the seas of the world.  It was said that each such vessel carried weapons equal in destructive power to all of the bombs dropped during World War II.  The U.S. Navy declared an intention to have forty five of these water-going arsenals in service by 1965. 

Fortunately, the end of the Cold War has taken the edge off this particular aspect of grave danger to humanity.  But the submarines and missiles are still out there.  Furthermore, even if they are one day retired, the knowledge and technology for quickly duplicating this perilous state of affairs will still be there.  Moreover, there are other nations and groups who have, and/or would like to have, similar bombs, missiles, submarines, and the like.

                                                            * * * * *

PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT--HERE--OR VIA E-MAIL, TO oneworld@tampabay.rr.com.

IF YOU ENJOY READING THIS SITE, PLEASE RECOMMEND IT TO ANY AND ALL OF YOUR LIKE-MINDED RELATIVES, FRIENDS, AND ASSOCIATES.

IF YOU ARE A STUDENT, PLEASE SUGGEST THAT YOUR TEACHER/PROFESSOR, AND/OR FELLOW-STUDENTS, LOOK IN AS WELL.

IF YOU ARE THE TEACHER/PROFESSOR, PERHAPS YOUR STUDENTS WOULD BE INTERESTED IN, AND BENEFITTED BY, DISCOVERING THE SENSIBLE CONTENT HEREOF.

ANY OF THE ABOVE WOULD BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED--AND MIGHT HELP TO MOVE US ALL A LITTLE FURTHER IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

THANK YOU.